11 March 2021

Economic conditions remain difficult. Although a vaccine would provide light at the end of the tunnel, the economic scarring already caused by the pandemic, including structural unemployment, rising private sector debt levels and weak business investmentmay mean that any recovery is slower and bumpier than many, including the Bank of England and the OBR, currently expect.

  • UK economic output is now 7.8%below its pre-pandemic level. For 2020 as a whole, the UK economy contracted by 9.9%, the largestannualfall on record.
  • The dominant services sector contracted by 8.9% in 2020 as a whole.
  • Business investment is still 10.3% below its pre-pandemic level, larger than the gap for overall economic output(7.8%)
  • Thanks to the Job retention scheme, the peak for unemployment will be markedly lower than previously expected.
  • The OBR expects UK economic output to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022.
  • The Eurozone is on course for a double-dip recession

click here to read the whole BCC Economic Review of March.